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Sunmi Lee 1 Article
Prediction of cancer survivors’ mortality risk in Korea: a 25-year nationwide prospective cohort study
Yeun Soo Yang, Heejin Kimm, Keum Ji Jung, Seulji Moon, Sunmi Lee, Sun Ha Jee
Epidemiol Health. 2022;44:e2022075.   Published online September 13, 2022
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2022075
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AbstractAbstract AbstractSummary PDFSupplementary Material
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
This study aimed to investigate the factors affecting cancer survival and develop a mortality prediction model for Korean cancer survivors. Our study identified lifestyle and mortality risk factors and attempted to determine whether health-promoting lifestyles affect mortality.
METHODS
Among the 1,637,287 participants in the Korean Cancer Prevention Study (KCPS) cohort, 200,834 cancer survivors who were alive after cancer diagnosis were analyzed. Discrimination and calibration for predicting the 10-year mortality risk were evaluated. A prediction model was derived using the Cox model coefficients, mean risk factor values, and mean mortality from the cancer survivors in the KCPS cohort.
RESULTS
During the 21.6-year follow-up, the all-cause mortality rates of cancer survivors were 57.2% and 39.4% in men and women, respectively. Men, older age, current smoking, and a history of diabetes were high-risk factors for mortality, while exercise habits and a family history of cancer were associated with reduced risk. The prediction model discrimination in the validation dataset for both KCPS all-cause mortality and KCPS cancer mortality was shown by C-statistics of 0.69 and 0.68, respectively. Based on the constructed prediction models, when we modified exercise status and smoking status, as modifiable factors, the cancer survivors’ risk of mortality decreased linearly.
CONCLUSIONS
A mortality prediction model for cancer survivors was developed that may be helpful in supporting a healthy life. Lifestyle modifications in cancer survivors may affect their risk of mortality in the future.
Summary
Korean summary
현재 암 생존자의 사망 위험을 평가하는 데 유용한 한국형 암 생존자 사망률 예측 모델은 없습니다. 본 연구에서는 고령, 남성, 현재 흡연, 당뇨병 병력을 포함한 생활양식 요인이 사망의 고위험 요인인 반면, 운동 습관 및 암의 가족력은 사망 위험을 감소시키는 것으로 나타났습니다. 현재 흡연과 운동 습관은 사망 위험에 영향을 미치는 수정 가능한 두 가지 요소로써, 이러한 생활습관 요인으로 구성된 예측모형은 생활습관 교정을 통해 우리나라 암 생존자의 사망률을 낮출 수 있음을 시사합니다.
Key Message
Currently, there is no Korean mortality prediction model for cancer survivors that would be useful in evaluating their risk of mortality. The present study showed that lifestyle factors, including older age, male sex, current smoking, and history of diabetes were high-risk factors for mortality, while exercise habits and a family history of cancer reduced the risk of mortality. Current smoking and exercise habits are the two modifiable factors that affected the risk of mortality. The prediction model comprising these lifestyle factors implies that the risk of mortality of cancer survivors in Korea can be reduced through lifestyle modification.

Epidemiol Health : Epidemiology and Health