OBJECTIVES This goal of this study was to shed light on the ecological context as a potential determinant of the infant mortality rate in nine high-focus states in India.
METHODS
Data from the Annual Health Survey (2010-2011), the Census of India (2011), and the District Level Household and Facility Survey 3 (2007-08) were used in this study. In multiple regression analysis explanatory variable such as underdevelopment is measured by the non-working population, and income inequality, quantified as the proportion of households in the bottom wealth quintile. While, the trickle-down effect of education is measured by female literacy, and investment in health, as reflected by neonatal care facilities in primary health centres.
RESULTS
A high spatial autocorrelation of district infant mortality rates was observed, and ecological factors were found to have a significant impact on district infant mortality rates. The result also revealed that non-working population and income inequality were found to have a negative effect on the district infant mortality rate. Additionally, female literacy and new-born care facilities were found to have an inverse association with the infant mortality rate.
CONCLUSIONS
Interventions at the community level can reduce district infant mortality rates.
Summary
Citations
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OBJECTIVES The target of the Fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG-4) is to reduce the rate of under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Despite substantial progress towards achieving the target of the MDG-4 in Iran at the national level, differences at the sub-national levels should be taken into consideration.
METHODS
The under-five mortality data available from the Deputy of Public Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, was used in order to perform a time series analysis of the monthly under-five mortality rate (U5MR) from 2005 to 2012 in Kermanshah province in the west of Iran. After primary analysis, a seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average model was chosen as the best fitting model based on model selection criteria.
RESULTS
The model was assessed and proved to be adequate in describing variations in the data. However, the unexpected presence of a stochastic increasing trend and a seasonal component with a periodicity of six months in the fitted model are very likely to be consequences of poor quality of data collection and reporting systems.
CONCLUSIONS
The present work is the first attempt at time series modeling of the U5MR in Iran, and reveals that improvement of under-five mortality data collection in health facilities and their corresponding systems is a major challenge to fully achieving the MGD-4 in Iran. Studies similar to the present work can enhance the understanding of the invisible patterns in U5MR, monitor progress towards the MGD-4, and predict the impact of future variations on the U5MR.
Summary
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