Epidemiology and Health

Original Articles

Using the capture-recapture method to estimate the human immunodeficiency virus-positive population: Jalal Poorolajal, Younes Mohammadi, Farzad Farzinara; Epidemiol Health. 2017;39:e2017042. Published online October 10, 2017; DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2017042

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Abstract

OBJECTIVES
The capture-recapture method was applied to estimate the number of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive individuals not registered with any data sources.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted in Lorestan Province, in the west of Iran, in 2016. Three incomplete sources of HIV-positive individuals, with partially overlapping data, were used, including: (a) transfusion center, (b) volunteer counseling and testing centers (VCTCs), and (c) prison. The 3-source capture-recapture method, using a log-linear model, was applied for data analysis. The Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion were used for model selection.

RESULTS

Of the 2,456 HIV-positive patients registered in these 3 data sources, 1,175 (47.8%) were identified in transfusion center, 867 (35.3%) in VCTCs, and 414 (16.8%) in prison. After the exclusion of duplicate entries, 2,281 HIV-positive patients remained. Based on the capture-recapture method, 14,868 (95% confidence interval, 9,923 to 23,427) HIV-positive individuals were not identified in any of the registries. Therefore, the real number of HIV-positive individuals was estimated to be 17,149, and the overall completeness of the 3 registries was estimated to be around 13.3%.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on capture-recapture estimates, a huge number of HIV-positive individuals are not registered with any of the provincial data sources. This is an urgent message for policymakers who plan and provide health care services for HIV-positive patients. Although the capture-recapture method is a useful statistical approach for estimating unknown populations, due to the assumptions and limitations of the method, the population size may be overestimated as it seems possible in our results.

Summary

Citations

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Estimation of the Frequency of Intravenous Drug Users in Hamadan City, Iran, Using the Capture-recapture Method: Salman Khazaei, Jalal Poorolajal, Hossein Mahjub, Nader Esmailnasab, Mohammad Mirzaei; Epidemiol Health. 2012;34:e2012006. Published online October 31, 2012; DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih/e2012006

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104 Download
6 Crossref

Abstract PDF

Abstract

<sec><title>OBJECTIVES</title>The number of illicit drug users is prone to underestimation. This study aimed to use the capture-recapture method as a statistical procedure for measuring the prevalence of intravenous drug users (IDUs) by estimating the number of unknown IDUs not registered by any of the registry centers.</sec><sec><title>METHODS</title>This study was conducted in Hamadan City, the west of Iran, in 2012. Three incomplete data sources of IDUs, with partial overlapping data, were assessed including: (a) Volunteer Counseling and Testing Centers (VCTCs); (b) Drop in Centers (DICs); and (c) Outreach Teams (ORTs). A log-linear model was applied for the analysis of three-sample capture-recapture results. Two information criteria were used for model selection including Akaike's Information Criterion and the Bayesian Information Criterion.</sec><sec><title>RESULTS</title>Out of 1,478 IDUs registered by three centers, 48% were identified by VCTCs, 32% by DICs, and 20% by ORTs. After exclusion of duplicates, 1,369 IDUs remained. According to our findings, there were 9,964 (95% CI, 6,088 to 17,636) IDUs not identified by any of the centers. Hence, the real number of IDUs is expected to be 11,333. Based on these findings, the overall completeness of the three data sources was around 12% (95% CI, 7% to 18%).</sec><sec><title>CONCLUSION</title>There was a considerable number of IDUs not identified by any of the centers. Although the capture-recapture method is a useful and practical approach for estimating unknown populations, due to the assumptions and limitations of the method, the results must be interpreted with caution.</sec>

Summary

Citations

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Using the capture-recapture method to estimate the human immunodeficiency virus-positive population
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Epidemiology and Health.2017; 39: e2017042. CrossRef
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Alessio Farcomeni, Daria Scacciatelli
The Annals of Applied Statistics.2013;[Epub] CrossRef

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