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Yu Bin Seo 1 Article
Prediction of COVID-19 transmission dynamics using a mathematical model considering behavior changes in Korea
Soyoung Kim, Yu Bin Seo, Eunok Jung
Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020026.   Published online April 13, 2020
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AbstractAbstract AbstractSummary PDFSupplementary Material
Since the report of the first confirmed case in Daegu on February 18, 2020, local transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Korea has continued. In this study, we aimed to identify the pattern of local transmission of COVID-19 using mathematical modeling and predict the epidemic size and the timing of the end of the spread.
We modeled the COVID-19 outbreak in Korea by applying a mathematical model of transmission that factors in behavioral changes. We used the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data of daily confirmed cases in the country to estimate the nationwide and Daegu/Gyeongbuk area-specific transmission rates as well as behavioral change parameters using a least-squares method.
The number of transmissions per infected patient was estimated to be about 10 times higher in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk area than the average of nationwide. Using these estimated parameters, our models predicts that about 13,800 cases will occur nationwide and 11,400 cases in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk area until mid-June.
We mathematically demonstrate that the relatively high per-capita rate of transmission and the low rate of changes in behavior have caused a large-scale transmission of COVID-19 in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk area in Korea. Since the outbreak is expected to continue until May, non-pharmaceutical interventions that can be sustained over the long term are required.
Korean summary
본 논문은 행동변화를 고려한 수학적 모델을 이용하여 코로나바이러스병-19의 유행 양상을 분석하고 총 환자수와 유행기간을 예측하고자 한다. 질병관리본부 확진자 데이터를 이용하여 전국과 대구·경북 지역의 감염전파율과 행동변화율을 추정하였다. 3월 10일까지의 데이터를 기준으로 전국적으로 6월 중순까지 약 13,000명, 대구·경북지역의 경우 5월 말까지 약 11,000명의 환자가 발생할 것으로 예측된다.


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