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Eun-Kyung Lee 1 Article
Multimorbidity adjusted years lost to disability rates calculated through Monte-Carlo simulation in Korea
Yoonhee Shin, Eun Jeong Choi, Bomi Park, Hye Ah Lee, Eun-Kyung Lee, Hyesook Park
Epidemiol Health. 2022;44:e2022090.   Published online October 17, 2022
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2022090
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AbstractAbstract AbstractSummary PDFSupplementary Material
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
To efficiently utilize limited health and medical resources, it is necessary to accurately measure the level of health, which requires estimating the multimorbidity-corrected burden of disease.
METHODS
This study used 2015 and 2016 data from the National Health Insurance Service, and employed the list of diseases defined in a Korean study of the burden of disease, the criteria for prevalence, and the “cause–sequelae–health state” disease system. When calculating the years lost to disability (YLD), multimorbidity was corrected using Monte-Carlo simulation.
RESULTS
Correcting for multimorbidity changed YLD at all ages in Korea by -1.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], -24.1 to 3.6) in males and -12.4% (95% CI, -23.0 to 0.3) in females in 2015, and by -10.8% (95% CI, -24.1 to 4.6) in males and -11.1% (95% CI, -22.8 to 1.7) in females in 2016. The YLD rate for non-communicable diseases in males decreased more than that of other disease groups in both years, by -11.8% (95% CI, -19.5 to 3.6) and -11.5% (95% CI, -19.3 to -3.0), respectively. The overall YLD rate changed by -1.3% in the 5-year to 9-year age group, and the magnitude of this change remained similar until the 10-19-year age group, gradually decreased after 20 years of age, and steeply increased to more than 10% in those aged 60 and older.
CONCLUSIONS
Calculations of YLD should adjust for multimorbidity, as the disease burden can otherwise be overestimated for the elderly, who tend to exhibit a high prevalence of multimorbidity.
Summary
Korean summary
복합질환 유병률이 증가됨에 따라 인구의 건강수준 측정 시 복합질환을 고려하는 것은 중요하다. 이에 본 연구에서는 복합질환 유병상태를 고려한 YLD(장애로 인한 손실년수)를 산출하고, 복합질환 유병상태를 고려하지 않고 산출한 YLD값과 비교하여 질병부담 산출 시 복합질환 유병상태를 보정하는 것의 효과 크기를 추정하였다. 복합질환의 유병률이 높은 노령층에서 복합질환을 고려하지 않고 YLD를 계산 할 경우 질병부담이 과대 추정될 수 있어, 복합질환을 보정하여 YLD를 산출하는 것이 필요하다.
Key Message
For the elderly whose disease burden can be overestimated, the multimorbidity should be adjusted during YLD calculations.

Epidemiol Health : Epidemiology and Health