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Original article Forecasting the effects of vaccination on the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia using SEIRV compartmental models
Mei Cheng Lim1orcid , Sarbhan Singh1orcid , Chee Herng Lai1orcid , Balvinder Singh Gill1orcid , Mohd Kamarulariffin Kamarudin1orcid , Ahmed Syahmi Syafiq Md Zamri1orcid , Cia Vei Tan1orcid , Asrul Anuar Zulkifli1orcid , Mohamad Nadzmi Md Nadri1orcid , Nur'ain Mohd Ghazali1orcid , Sumarni Mohd Ghazali1orcid , Nuur Hafizah Md Iderus1orcid , Nur Ar Rabiah Ahmad1orcid , Jeyanthi Suppiah1orcid , Kok Keng Tee2orcid , Tahir Aris1orcid , Lonny Chen Rong Qi Ahmad1orcid
Epidemiol Health 2023;e2023093
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2023093 [Accepted]
Published online: October 17, 2023
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1National Institutes of Health, Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia
2Faculty of Medicine, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumour, Malaysia
Corresponding author:  Mei Cheng Lim,
Email: dr.limmeicheng@moh.gov.my
Received: 17 July 2023   • Revised: 25 September 2023   • Accepted: 3 October 2023

OBJECTIVES
This study aimed to develop susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-vaccinated (SEIRV) models to examine the effects of vaccination on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case trends in Malaysia during Phase 3 of the National COVID-19 Immunization Program amidst the Delta outbreak.
METHODS
SEIRV models were developed and validated using COVID-19 case and vaccination data from the Ministry of Health, Malaysia, from June 21, 2021 to July 21, 2021 to generate forecasts of COVID-19 cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021. Three scenarios were examined to measure the effects of vaccination on COVID-19 case trends. Scenarios 1 and 2 represented the trends taking into account the earliest and latest possible times of achieving full vaccination for 80% of the adult population by October 31, 2021 and December 31, 2021, respectively. Scenario 3 described a scenario without vaccination for comparison.
RESULTS
In scenario 1, forecasted cases peaked on August 28, 2021, which was close to the peak of observed cases on August 26, 2021. The observed peak was 20.27% higher than in scenario 1 and 10.37% lower than in scenario 2. The cumulative observed cases from July 22 to December 31, 2021 were 13.29% higher than in scenario 1 and 55.19% lower than in scenario 2. The daily COVID-19 case trends closely mirrored the forecast of COVID-19 cases in scenario 1 (best-case scenario).
CONCLUSIONS
Our study demonstrated that COVID-19 vaccination reduced COVID-19 case trends during the Delta outbreak. The compartmental models developed assisted in the management and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia.


Epidemiol Health : Epidemiology and Health