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1 "Stochastic processes"
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Original Article
Ebola virus disease outbreak in Korea: use of a mathematical model and stochastic simulation to estimate risk
Youngsuk Ko, Seok-Min Lee, Soyoung Kim, Moran Ki, Eunok Jung
Epidemiol Health. 2019;41:e2019048.   Published online November 24, 2019
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2019048
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES
According to the World Health Organization, there have been frequent reports of Ebola virus disease (EVD) since the 2014 EVD pandemic in West Africa. We aim to estimate the outbreak scale when an EVD infected person arrives in Korea.
METHODS
Western Africa EVD epidemic mathematical model SEIJR or SEIJQR was modified to create a Korean EVD outbreak model. The expected number of EVD patients and outbreak duration were calculated by stochastic simulation under the scenarios of Best case, Diagnosis delay, and Case missing.
RESULTS
The 2,000 trials of stochastic simulation for each scenario demonstrated the following results: The possible median number of patients is 2 and the estimated maximum number is 11 when the government intervention is proceeded immediately right after the first EVD case is confirmed. With a 6-day delay in diagnosis of the first case, the median number of patients becomes 7, and the maximum, 20. If the first case is missed and the government intervention is not activated until 2 cases of secondary infection occur, the median number of patients is estimated at 15, and the maximum, at 35.
CONCLUSIONS
Timely and rigorous diagnosis is important to reduce the spreading scale of infection when a new communicable disease is inflowed into Korea. Moreover, it is imperative to strengthen the local surveillance system and diagnostic protocols to avoid missing cases of secondary infection.
Summary
Korean summary
본 연구는 수학적 모델과 확률 시뮬레이션 기법을 이용하여 국내에 유입되지 않았던 에볼라바이러스병(EVD)의 확산 위험도를 정량적으로 예측하는 첫 번째 연구이다. 또한 이 연구를 통해 에볼라바이러스병 환자의 유입 시 발생 가능한 진단 지연 혹은 유입 미인지 상황을 가정하여 발생할 수 있는 2차 감염자 수 및 감염 종식까지의 기간을 계산했고 에볼라바이러스 유입 대비 실시간모니터링의 중요성과 확산 시 상황에 따른 최대 일일 환자수를 합리적으로 제시할 수 있다.

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