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Schehrazad Selmane 2 Articles
Demographic and epidemiological characteristics of scorpion envenomation and daily forecasting of scorpion sting counts in Touggourt, Algeria
Kaouthar Boubekeur, Mohamed L’Hadj, Schehrazad Selmane
Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020050.   Published online July 6, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020050
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES
This study was conducted to provide better insights into the demographic and epidemiological characteristics of scorpion envenomation in an endemic area in Algeria and to identify the model that best predicted daily scorpion sting counts.
METHODS
Daily sting data from January 1, 2013 to August 31, 2016 were extracted from questionnaires designed to elicit information on scorpion stings from the two emergency medical service providers in Touggourt, Algeria. Count regression models were applied to the daily sting data.
RESULTS
A total of 4,712 scorpion sting cases were documented, of which 70% occurred in people aged between 10 years and 49 years. The male-to-female ratio was 1.3. The upper and lower limbs were the most common locations of scorpion stings (90.4% of cases). Most stings (92.8%) were mild. The percent of people stung inside dwellings was 68.8%. The hourly distribution of stings showed a peak between 10:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. The daily number of stings ranged from 0 to 24. The occurrence of stings was highest on Sundays. The incidence of scorpion stings increased sharply in the summer. The mean annual incidence rate was 542 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The fitted count regression models showed that a negative binomial hurdle model was appropriate for forecasting daily stings in terms of temperature and relative humidity, and the fitted data agreed considerably with the actual data.
CONCLUSIONS
This study showed that daily scorpion sting data provided meaningful insights; and the negative binomial Hurdle model was preferable for predicting daily scorpion sting counts.
Summary
Korean summary
Key Message
Forecasting and prediction of scorpion sting cases in Biskra province, Algeria, using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model
Schehrazad Selmane, Mohamed L’Hadj
Epidemiol Health. 2016;38:e2016044.   Published online October 14, 2016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2016044
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  • 3 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
The aims of this study were to highlight some epidemiological aspects of scorpion envenomations, to analyse and interpret the available data for Biskra province, Algeria, and to develop a forecasting model for scorpion sting cases in Biskra province, which records the highest number of scorpion stings in Algeria.
METHODS
In addition to analysing the epidemiological profile of scorpion stings that occurred throughout the year 2013, we used the Box-Jenkins approach to fit a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to the monthly recorded scorpion sting cases in Biskra from 2000 to 2012.
RESULTS
The epidemiological analysis revealed that scorpion stings were reported continuously throughout the year, with peaks in the summer months. The most affected age group was 15 to 49 years old, with a male predominance. The most prone human body areas were the upper and lower limbs. The majority of cases (95.9%) were classified as mild envenomations. The time series analysis showed that a (5,1,0)×(0,1,1)12 SARIMA model offered the best fit to the scorpion sting surveillance data. This model was used to predict scorpion sting cases for the year 2013, and the fitted data showed considerable agreement with the actual data.
CONCLUSIONS
SARIMA models are useful for monitoring scorpion sting cases, and provide an estimate of the variability to be expected in future scorpion sting cases. This knowledge is helpful in predicting whether an unusual situation is developing or not, and could therefore assist decision-makers in strengthening the province’s prevention and control measures and in initiating rapid response measures.
Summary
Korean summary
Key Message

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by  
  • Epidemiological aspects of scorpion stings in Algeria: A monocentric retrospective study
    Mohamed Amine Kerdoun
    Toxicologie Analytique et Clinique.2022; 34(1): 4.     CrossRef
  • Terrestrial venomous animals, the envenomings they cause, and treatment perspectives in the Middle East and North Africa
    Timothy P. Jenkins, Shirin Ahmadi, Matyas A. Bittenbinder, Trenton K. Stewart, Dilber E. Akgun, Melissa Hale, Nafiseh N. Nasrabadi, Darian S. Wolff, Freek J. Vonk, Jeroen Kool, Andreas H. Laustsen, Jean-Philippe Chippaux
    PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases.2021; 15(12): e0009880.     CrossRef
  • Predictive determinants of scorpion stings in a tropical zone of south Iran: use of mixed seasonal autoregressive moving average model
    Vahid Ebrahimi, Esmael Hamdami, Mohammad Djaefar Moemenbellah-Fard, Shahrokh Ezzatzadegan Jahromi
    Journal of Venomous Animals and Toxins including Tropical Diseases.2017;[Epub]     CrossRef

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