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Oluyemi A. Okunlola 1 Article
Modeling the relationship between malaria prevalence and insecticide-treated bed net coverage in Nigeria using a Bayesian spatial generalized linear mixed model with a Leroux prior
Oluyemi A. Okunlola, Oyetunde T. Oyeyemi, Adewale F. Lukman
Epidemiol Health. 2021;43:e2021041.   Published online June 4, 2021
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AbstractAbstract AbstractSummary PDF
To evaluate malaria transmission in relation to insecticide-treated net (ITN) coverage in Nigeria.
We used an exploratory analysis approach to evaluate variation in malaria transmission in relation to ITN distribution in 1,325 Demographic and Health Survey clusters in Nigeria. A Bayesian spatial generalized linear mixed model with a Leroux conditional autoregressive prior for the random effects was used to model the spatial and contextual variation in malaria prevalence and ITN distribution after adjusting for environmental variables.
Spatial smoothed maps showed the nationwide distribution of malaria and ITN. The distribution of ITN varied significantly across the 6 geopolitical zones (p<0.05). The North-East had the least ITN distribution (0.196±0.071), while ITN distribution was highest in the South-South (0.309±0.075). ITN coverage was also higher in rural areas (0.281±0.074) than in urban areas (0.240±0.096, p<0.05). The Bayesian hierarchical regression results showed a non-significant negative relationship between malaria prevalence and ITN coverage, but a significant spatial structured random effect and unstructured random effect. The correlates of malaria transmission included rainfall, maximum temperature, and proximity to water.
Reduction in malaria transmission was not significantly related to ITN coverage, although much could be achieved in attempts to curtail malaria transmission through enhanced ITN coverage. A multifaceted and integrated approach to malaria control is strongly advocated.
Key Message
Scaling up equity in ITN distribution and coverage, awareness and knowledge on ITN utilization are important integrated approaches to mitigate malaria transmission in Nigeria.


Citations to this article as recorded by  
  • Vegetation index and livestock practices as predictors of malaria transmission in Nigeria
    Oluyemi Okunlola, Segun Oloja, Ayooluwade Ebiwonjumi, Oyetunde Oyeyemi
    Scientific Reports.2024;[Epub]     CrossRef
  • A Systematic Review of Areal Units and Adjacency Used in Bayesian Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Conditional Autoregressive Models in Health Research
    Zemenu Tadesse Tessema, Getayeneh Antehunegn Tesema, Susannah Ahern, Arul Earnest
    International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.2023; 20(13): 6277.     CrossRef
  • Malaria transmission in Africa: Its relationship with yellow fever and measles
    Oluyemi A. Okunlola, Oyetunde T. Oyeyemi, Luzia Helena Carvalho
    PLOS ONE.2022; 17(5): e0268080.     CrossRef
  • Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling and mapping of malaria and anaemia among children between 0 and 59 months in Nigeria
    Jecinta U. Ibeji, Henry Mwambi, Abdul-Karim Iddrisu
    Malaria Journal.2022;[Epub]     CrossRef

Epidemiol Health : Epidemiology and Health