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Jin Yong Kim 1 Article
Intervention effects in the transmission of COVID-19 depending on the detection rate and extent of isolation
Okyu Kwon, Woo-Sik Son, Jin Yong Kim, Jong-Hun Kim
Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020045.   Published online June 23, 2020
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AbstractAbstract AbstractSummary PDFSupplementary Material
In 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) respiratory infection is spreading in Korea. In order to prevent the spread of an infectious disease, infected people must be quickly identified and isolated, and contact with the infected must be blocked early. This study attempted to verify the intervention effects on the spread of an infectious disease by using these measures in a mathematical model.
We used the susceptible-infectious-recovery (SIR) model for a virtual population group connected by a special structured network. In the model, the infected state (I) was divided into I in which the infection is undetected and Ix in which the infection is detected. The probability of transitioning from an I state to Ix can be viewed as the rate at which an infected person is found. We assumed that only those connected to each other in the network can cause infection. In addition, this study attempted to evaluate the effects of isolation by temporarily removing the connection among these people.
In Scenario 1, only the infected are isolated; in Scenario 2, those who are connected to an infected person and are also found to be infected are isolated as well. In Scenario 3, everyone connected to an infected person are isolated. In Scenario 3, it was possible to effectively suppress the infectious disease even with a relatively slow rate of diagnosis and relatively high infection rate.
During the epidemic, quick identification of the infected is helpful. In addition, it was possible to quantitatively show through a simulation evaluation that the management of infected individuals as well as those who are connected greatly helped to suppress the spread of infectious diseases.
Korean summary
본 연구는 행위자 기반 모형의 시뮬레이션 평가를 통해 COVID-19 유행 상황에서 비약물적 중재 효과를 정량적으로 제시하였다. 비약물적 중재에 관한 세 가지 시나리오를 통해 제시한 결과에서, COVID-19 감염자를 신속하게 진단하고, 감염자 본인과 접촉자들을 가능한 한 빨리 모두 격리하여 관리하는 것이 감염병 확산을 억제하는데 있어서 보다 효과적이었다.
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Citations to this article as recorded by  
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