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Original article Preventable cancer cases and deaths attributable to tobacco smoking in Korea from 2015 to 2030
Soseul Sung1,2orcid , Jihye An4orcid , Jeehi Jung5orcid , Hyeon Sook Lee6orcid , Sungji Moon1,3orcid , Inah Kim8orcid , Jung Eun Lee9orcid , Aesun Shin1,3orcid , Sun Ha Jee11orcid , Sun-Seog Kweon12orcid , Min-Ho Shin12orcid , Sangmin Park2,13orcid , Seung-Ho Ryu14orcid , Sun Young Yang15orcid , Seung Ho Choi15orcid , Jeongseon Kim16orcid , Sang-Wook Yi17orcid , Yoon-Jung Choi16orcid , Youjin Hong1,3orcid , Sangjun Lee1,3orcid , Woojin Lim1,2orcid , Kyungsik Kim1,3orcid , Daehee Kang1,3orcid , Keun-Young Yoo1,18orcid , Sohee Park11orcid , Jeong-Soo Im19orcid , Hong Gwan Seo16,19orcid , Hai-Rim Shin20orcid , Kwang-Pil Ko1,21orcid , Sue K. Park1,3
Epidemiol Health 2025;e2025008
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2025008 [Accepted]
Published online: February 27, 2025
1Department of Preventive Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
2Department of Biomedical Sciences, Seoul National University Graduate School, Seoul, Korea
3Cancer Research Institute, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
4Department of Epidemic Intelligence Service, Incheon Communicable Diseases Center, Incheon, Korea
5Department of Biomedicine & Health Science, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea
6Incheon Public Health Policy Institute, Incheon, Korea
7Interdisciplinary Program in Cancer Biology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
8Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Hanyang University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
9Department of Food and Nutrition, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
10Integrated Major in Innovative Medical Science, Seoul National University Graduate School, Seoul, Korea
11Department of Epidemiology and Health Promotion, Institute for Health Promotion, Graduate School of Public Health, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea
12Department of Preventive Medicine, Chonnam National University Medical School, Hwasun-gun, Jeollanam-do, Korea
13Department of Family Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, Korea
14Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
15Department of Internal Medicine, Healthcare Research Institute, Seoul National University Hospital Healthcare System Gangnam Center, Seoul, Korea
16Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy, National Cancer Center, Goyang-si, Gyeonggi-do, Korea
17Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Catholic Kwandong University College of Medicine, Gangneung-si, Gangwon-do, Korea
18Veterans Health Service Medical Center, Seoul, Korea
19Division of Cancer Registration and Surveillance, National Cancer Center, Goyang-si, Gyeonggi-do, Korea
20Former Director, Division of Healthy Environments and Population, Western Pacific Regional Office, World Health Organization, Manila, Philippines
21Clinical Preventive Medicine Center, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam-si, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea
Corresponding author:  Kwang-Pil Ko,
Sue K. Park,
Received: 24 July 2024   • Revised: 26 December 2024   • Accepted: 3 February 2025
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Abstract

OBJECTIVES
Tobacco smoking is a major public health concern worldwide. This study aimed to assess its impact on cancer incidence and mortality by estimating the population attributable fraction (PAF) in the Korean population for 2015 and 2020 and by projecting future trends until 2030.
METHODS
The Korean relative risk (RR) was calculated via a meta–analysis of RRs for individual cancers attributed to tobacco smoking, based on primary data analysis from the Korean Cohort Consortium. The PAF was estimated using the Levin formula with past and current prevalence rates and the number of cancer cases and deaths, assuming a 15–year latency period.
RESULTS
The proportions of cancer cases and deaths in Korea attributable to tobacco smoking were similar to those calculated using Asian and global RRs for both men and women. In 2015 and 2020, tobacco smoking contributed to 14.32% and 13.17% of cancer cases and 21.70% and 20.69% of cancer deaths in adults, respectively. Among Koreans, smoking was responsible for 25.83% of new cancer cases in men in 2015, 23.49% in men in 2020, 1.46% in women in 2015, and 1.68% in women in 2020. In both years, smoking impacted mortality more strongly than incidence in Korean men and women (incidence in men: 25.83% and 23.49%; mortality in men: 32.09% and 30.41%; incidence in women: 1.46% and 1.68%; and mortality in women: 4.70% and 4.96%, respectively).
CONCLUSIONS
Tobacco smoking causes cancers and deaths in Korea, however, it is preventable. Effective control policies that consider trends and vulnerabilities among women are required.

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