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Department of Preventive Medicine, Jeju National University School of Medicine, Jeju, Korea
©2018, Korean Society of Epidemiology
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Secular Seasonality and Trend Forecasting of Tuberculosis Incidence Rate in China Using the Advanced Error-Trend-Seasonal Framework
Areas | Country [reference] | Study period | Season (month) |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
Peak | Trough | |||
Asia | Japan [5] | 1998, 2000-2003 | Spring-summer (May-Aug) | Fall-winter (Nov-Jan) |
China [6] | 2005-2014 | Spring (Mar) | Fall (Oct) | |
Hong Kong [7] | 1991-2002 | Summer (Jul and Aug) | Winter (Jan and Feb) | |
India [8] | 1996-2001 | Spring (Apr-Jun) | Fall-winter (Oct-Dec) | |
Pakistan [9] | 2006-2013 | Spring (Apr-Jun) | Fall-winter (Oct-Dec) | |
Kuwait [10] | 1997-2006 | Spring-summer (Mar-Aug) | Fall-winter (Aug-Dec) | |
Iran [11] | 2001-2011 | Spring (May) | Winter (Feb) | |
Israel [12] | 2001-2011 | Spring | Fall | |
Europe | Portugal [13] | 2000-2010 | Spring (Mar) | Winter (Dec) |
Spain [14] | 1996-2004 | Summer | Fall-winter | |
Netherlands [15] | 1993-2008 | Spring | Winter | |
UK [16] | 1983-1992 | Summer | Winter | |
Others | USA [17] | 1993-2008 | Spring (Mar) | Fall (Nov) |
Australia [18] | 2002-2011 | Fall (Oct) | Summer (Jun) | |
Cameroon [19] | 2002-2004 | Winter (rainy season) | Summer (dry season) |
Year | Spring | Summer | Fall | Winter |
---|---|---|---|---|
2006 | 9,041 (18.5) | 9,344 (19.1) | 8,484 (17.4) | 8,492 (17.4) |
2007 | 9,186 (18.7) | 9,584 (19.5) | 8,005 (16.3) | 7,935 (16.2) |
2008 | 8,868 (17.9) | 9,184 (18.6) | 8,284 (16.8) | 7,821 (15.8) |
2009 | 9,675 (19.5) | 10,276 (20.7) | 8,313 (16.7) | 7,581 (15.3) |
2010 | 9,560 (19.2) | 10,367 (20.8) | 8,655 (17.4) | 7,723 (15.5) |
2011 | 10,516 (21.0) | 11,262 (22.5) | 9,639 (19.2) | 8,140 (16.2) |
2012 | 10,315 (20.5) | 11,077 (22.0) | 9,161 (18.2) | 8,992 (17.9) |
2013 | 9,724 (19.2) | 9,561 (18.9) | 8,327 (16.5) | 8,477 (16.8) |
2014 | 9,438 (18.6) | 9,124 (18.0) | 8,172 (16.1) | 8,135 (16.0) |
2015 | 8,619 (16.9) | 8,154 (16.0) | 7,794 (15.3) | 7,614 (14.9) |
2016 | 8,321 (16.3) | 8,371 (16.4) | 7,229 (14.1) | 6,971 (13.6) |
Total | 103,263 | 106,304 | 92,063 | 87,881 |
Month | Mean cases | Range |
CR | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Minimun | Maximum | |||
Jan | 2,623 | 2,190 | 3,038 | 5.2 |
Feb | 2,559 | 2,138 | 3,145 | 5.1 |
Mar | 3,030 | 2,781 | 3,467 | 6.1 |
Apr | 3,181 | 2,711 | 3,529 | 6.4 |
May | 3,176 | 2,713 | 3,649 | 6.3 |
Jun | 3,210 | 2,777 | 3,768 | 6.4 |
Jul | 3,346 | 2,774 | 3,889 | 6.7 |
Aug | 3,109 | 2,577 | 3,825 | 6.2 |
Sep | 2,792 | 2,321 | 3,242 | 5.6 |
Oct | 2,813 | 2,450 | 3,147 | 5.6 |
Nov | 2,765 | 2,458 | 3,330 | 5.5 |
Dec | 2,807 | 2,409 | 3,291 | 5.6 |
Season | 2006-2016 | 2006-2012 | 2013-2016 |
---|---|---|---|
Spring | 508.140 | 532.164 | 469.568 |
Summer | 813.315 | 1,108.955 | 318.068 |
Fall | -474.069 | -507.491 | -440.703 |
Winter | -847.385 | -1,133.628 | -346.932 |
Values are presented as number (crude rate). Unit: cases (per 100,000 population).
Unit: cases (per 100,000 population).