Epidemiology and Health

Original Article

Preventable cancer cases and deaths attributable to deficit of physical activity in Korea from 2015 to 2030: Soseul Sung, Sungji Moon, Jihye An, Jeehi Jung, Hyeon Sook Lee, Youjin Hong, Sangjun Lee, Woojin Lim, Kyungsik Kim, Inah Kim, Jung Eun Lee, Sun Ha Jee, Aesun Shin, Ji-Yeob Choi, Sun-Seog Kweon, Min-Ho Shin, Sangmin Park, Seungho Ryu, Sun Young Yang, Seung Ho Choi, Jeongseon Kim, Sang-Wook Yi, Yoon-Jung Choi, Jeong-Soo Im, Hong Gwan Seo, Sohee Park, Kwang-Pil Ko, Sue K. Park; Epidemiol Health. 2025;47:e2025010. Published online January 27, 2025; DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2025010

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Abstract Summary PDF Supplementary Material: Abstract
OBJECTIVES
This study aimed to determine the population-attributable fractions (PAFs) of cancers using various calculation methods and to estimate the PAFs of cancer incidence and mortality resulting from deficit in physical activity (DPA) from 2015 to 2030, based on data on prevalence rates.
METHODS
The PAF of cancer was estimated using a cohort study-based meta-analysis of relative risk (RR), national prevalence rates of DPA from 2000 to 2015, and national cancer statistics from 2015 to 2030, with a latency of 15 years.
RESULTS
In 2015, DPA contributed to 909 cancer cases and 548 deaths, accounting for 0.42% and 0.68% of new cancer cases and deaths, respectively. By 2030, the PAF values are expected to increase to 1.31% of incidence and 1.80% of mortality, with a continual increase from 2015 to 2030. When the low metabolic equivalent of task (MET) criteria were selected, the PAF values decreased for both incidence and mortality. The PAF calculated with <900 MET-min/wk for the sex-specific MET criterion was higher than that calculated with <900 MET-min/wk for both incidence and mortality.
CONCLUSIONS
The risk of cancer associated with DPA is expected to rise in both male and female. Future research and strategies should emphasize the promotion of physical activity for cancer prevention, considering its significant implications for public health.; Summary

Korean summary
2015년 신체활동 부족(deficit in physical activity, DPA)에 의한 인구집단기여분율(population-attributable fraction, PAF)은 암 발생 0.42%(909건), 암 사망 0.68%(548건)였으며 2030년에는 각각 1.31%, 1.80%로 증가할 것으로 예측됨. 남녀 모두에서 DPA로 인한 암 부담이 증가하고 있으므로, 암 예방을 위한 신체활동 증진 전략을 강화할 필요가 있음.

Key Message
In 2015, deficit in physical activity (DPA) accounted for 0.42% of incident cancers (909 cases) and 0.68% of cancer deaths (548 deaths), with population-attributable fraction (PAF) values projected to rise to 1.31% for incidence and 1.80% for mortality by 2030. The cancer burden attributable to DPA is increasing in both sexes, underscoring the need to strengthen population-level physical-activity promotion for prevention.

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