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2 "Age-period-cohort analysis"
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Decrease in household secondhand smoking among Korean adolescents associated with smoke-free policies: grade-period-cohort and interrupted time series analyses
Hana Kim, Heewon Kang, Sung-il Cho
Epidemiol Health. 2024;46:e2024009.   Published online December 13, 2023
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2024009
  • 2,607 View
  • 94 Download
AbstractAbstract AbstractSummary PDFSupplementary Material
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
Smoke-free areas have expanded and related campaigns have been implemented since 1995 in Korea. As a result, household secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure has decreased over the past 15 years. We assessed the cohort effect, the effect of a 2008 campaign on household SHS exposure, and the impact of a complete smoking ban in public places along with increased penalties, as implemented in December 2011.
METHODS
Nationally representative cross-sectional 15-wave survey data of Korean adolescents were used. The 810,516 participants were classified into 6 grade groups, 15 period groups, and 20 middle school admission cohorts. An age-period-cohort analysis, conducted with the intrinsic estimator method, was used to assess the cohort effect of household SHS exposure, and interrupted-time series analyses were conducted to evaluate the effects of the smoke-free policy and the campaign.
RESULTS
For cohorts who entered middle school from 2002 to 2008, the risk of household SHS exposure decreased among both boys and girls. Immediately after implementation of the smoke-free policy, the prevalence of household SHS exposure by period decreased significantly for boys (coefficient, -8.96; p<0.05) and non-significantly for girls (coefficient, -6.99; p=0.07). After the campaign, there was a significant decrease in household SHS exposure by cohort among boys, both immediately and post-intervention (coefficient, -4.84; p=0.03; coefficient, -1.22; p=0.02, respectively).
CONCLUSIONS
A school-admission-cohort effect was found on household SHS exposure among adolescents, which was associated with the smoke-free policy and the campaign. Anti-smoking interventions should be implemented consistently and simultaneously.
Summary
Korean summary
지난 15년 동안 한국 청소년의 가정 내 간접흡연 노출은 감소했다. 가정 내 간접흡연 노출에 대하여 중학교 입학 코호트 효과가 존재하였다. 또한, 청소년의 가정 내 간접흡연 노출 감소는 2011년 12월 공공장소에서의 금연구역 규제와 2008년 시행된 캠페인과 연관되어 있었다.
Key Message
Household secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure among Korean adolescents has decreased over the past 15 years. There was a school admission cohort effect on household SHS exposure. A complete smoking ban in public space with increased penalties in December 2011 and a campaign in 2008 to avoid SHS exposure were associated with reduced household SHS exposure among adolescents.
Recent increase in pertussis incidence in Korea: an age-period-cohort analysis
Chanhee Kim, Seonju Yi, Sung-il Cho
Epidemiol Health. 2021;43:e2021053.   Published online August 18, 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2021053
  • 9,232 View
  • 180 Download
  • 6 Web of Science
  • 7 Crossref
AbstractAbstract AbstractSummary PDFSupplementary Material
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
Pertussis or whooping cough—one of the most contagious diseases—is caused by the Gram-negative bacterium <i>Bordetella pertussis</i>. Despite a high vaccination rate, Korea recently experienced a resurgence of pertussis. This study explores patterns and possible explanations for this resurgence through an age-period-cohort analysis.
METHODS
Using secondary data from the infectious disease portal of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency and the Korea Statistical Information Service of Statistics Korea, this study analyzed the incidence of pertussis in Korea to determine which factors contributed to the recent increase using an age-period-cohort model.
RESULTS
Analysis of the age effect indicated that the age group most vulnerable to pertussis was 0-year to 2-year-olds. Analysis of the period effect showed a sharp increase in the incidence rate after 2016. Analysis of the cohort effect showed a significant decrease in incidence beginning with the 1955 birth cohort, with the risk increasing again with the 2000s birth cohort.
CONCLUSIONS
Previous studies have suggested 3 main possible explanations for our results. First, the increased incidence rate can be attributed to contact rates. Second, the rate of immunity through natural exposure has decreased due to the low number of circulating pathogens, in turn affecting the trend of infection. Lastly, variations in pathogens may have also contributed to the increase in incidence. Given that the most significant increase in incidence was observed among infants younger than 1 year old, sufficient maternal immunity must be prioritized to provide passive immunity to newborns via the placenta.
Summary
Korean summary
본 연구는 연령-기간-코호트 모델을 활용하여 예방접종률이 높은 국가들의 백일해 재출현에 기여하는 요인에 무엇이 있는지 살펴보았다. 연령에 따른 사회적 접촉률(contact rate)의 변화, 자연노출에 의한 면역 강화(natural boosting) 기회의 감소, 그리고 백일해 병원체의 변이가 백일해 재출현의 원인일 수 있다. 분석 결과 영아 집단에서 백일해 발병률이 가장 급격한 증가가 관찰되었으며, 이는 모성면역의 확보가 중요하다는 점을 시사한다.
Key Message
This study examined factors contribute to the re-emergence of pertussis in countries with high vaccination rates using the age-period-cohort model. Changes in social contact rates according to age, reduction in immune boosting opportunities by natural exposure, and variations in pertussis pathogens may be the cause of re-emergence. As a result of the analysis, the sharpest increase in the incidence of pertussis in the infant group was observed, suggesting that securing maternal immunity is important.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by  
  • Epidemiological Characteristics of Notifiable Respiratory Infectious Diseases in Mainland China from 2010 to 2018
    Lele Deng, Yajun Han, Jinlong Wang, Haican Liu, Guilian Li, Dayan Wang, Guangxue He
    International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.2023; 20(5): 3946.     CrossRef
  • Incidence and Healthcare Burden of Pertussis among Older Adults with and without Pre-Existing Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease or Asthma in South Korea
    Jing Chen, Ju-Young Shin, Hyungwoo Kim, Ju Hwan Kim, Ahhyung Choi, Hee Jin Cheong, Yeon-Mok Oh, Adrienne Guignard, Sumitra Shantakumar
    COPD: Journal of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.2023; 20(1): 126.     CrossRef
  • Pre-Pandemic Distribution of Bacterial Species in Nasopharyngeal Swab Specimens from Pediatric and Adult Patients Detected via RT-PCR Using the Allplex Respiratory Panel
    Dong-Hyun Lee, Young-Jin Choi, Jieun Kim, Eunhee Han, Mi-Hyun Bae
    Life.2023; 13(9): 1840.     CrossRef
  • Bacterial Etiology in Subacute Cough
    Ji-Yong Moon, Hyun Lee, Min-Hye Kim, Woo-Jung Song, Sang Min Lee, Sae-Hoon Kim, Sang-Heon Kim, Byung-Jae Lee, Ho Joo Yoon, Sang Hoon Kim
    Allergy, Asthma & Immunology Research.2023; 15(5): 673.     CrossRef
  • Post-Marketing Surveillance of Tetravalent Diphtheria-Tetanus-Acellular Pertussis and Inactivated Poliovirus (DTaP-IPV) Vaccine in South Korea, 2009 to 2015
    Young June Choe, Emmanuel Vidor, Christine Manson
    Infectious Diseases and Therapy.2022; 11(4): 1479.     CrossRef
  • ARIMA and ARIMA-ERNN models for prediction of pertussis incidence in mainland China from 2004 to 2021
    Meng Wang, Jinhua Pan, Xinghui Li, Mengying Li, Zhixi Liu, Qi Zhao, Linyun Luo, Haiping Chen, Sirui Chen, Feng Jiang, Liping Zhang, Weibing Wang, Ying Wang
    BMC Public Health.2022;[Epub]     CrossRef
  • Evaluation of Whole-Cell and Acellular Pertussis Vaccines in the Context of Long-Term Herd Immunity
    Ewa Szwejser-Zawislak, Mieszko M. Wilk, Piotr Piszczek, Justyna Krawczyk, Daria Wilczyńska, Daniela Hozbor
    Vaccines.2022; 11(1): 1.     CrossRef

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