Epidemiology and Health

Kyung Hwan Cho

3 Articles

Retraction: A time Series Analysis of the Death Rates and Rectanularization of the Survival Curve, 1970-2010.: Yong Gyu Park, Kyung Hwan Cho; Korean J Epidemiol. 2007;29(1):100-101.

A Forecasting Model for the Epidemic of Nationally Notifiable Communicable Diseases in Korea.: Yonggyu Park, Hyoung Ah Kim, Kyung Hwan Cho, Euichul Shin, Kwang Ho Meng; Korean J Epidemiol. 2000;22(2):108-115.

Abstract PDF: Abstract
PURPOSE
S: The authors derived two forecasting models which can be used as objective tools for detecting epidemics and predicting the future frequencies of communicable diseases.
METHODS
In this study, regression analysis using trigonometric functions, Box and Jenkins's seasonal ARIMA model were applied to the monthly accumulated data of five nationally notifiable communicable diseases from January 1987 to December 1998 in Korea.
RESULTS
Between two forecasting models, seasonal ARIMA model gives more precise predicted frequencies than regression model in the neighborhood of the current time points and future time, but the regression model is better in overall agreement between the predicted and observed frequencies during 7 years(1992-1998).
CONCLUSIONS
These forecasting models can be usefully applied in deciding and carrying out a national policy in preventing epidemics in the future, and graphic program is much helpful to understand the present status of disease occurrence.; Summary

A Time Series Analysis of the Death Rates and Rectangularization of the Survival Curve, 1970-2010.: Yong Gyu Park, Kyung Hwan Cho; Korean J Epidemiol. 1997;19(2):210-219.

Abstract PDF: Abstract
As the population of senior people has been increased rapidly during the past 30 years in Koera, the health policy and related research in this field are strongly demanded to manage various problems which can be derived from the gerontic phenomenon. We estimated the death rates up to 2010 using the annual mortality data published by the National Statistical Office from 1970 to 1995 by time series analysis and calculated the survival curves, life expectancy by life table method with modified Graville's formular and proposed several measures which can be used in describing the theory of retangularization of survival curves and compression of mortality hypothesis. According to the results, the relative and absolute rectangularization and the convergency of survival curves were observed, and all the Keyfitz's H, NH, SD, and CV decreased while the life expectancy increased in the period of 1970 to 2010. So we conclude that the hypothesis of mortality compression suggested by Fries explains the changing pattern of aged population in Korea very well.; Summary

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