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Jinhee Kim 1 Article
Incidence of varicella in children in Jeju-do, Korea, 2005-2016: age-period-cohort analysis
Jinhee Kim, Ji-Eun Kim, Jong-Myon Bae
Epidemiol Health. 2018;40:e2018054.   Published online November 8, 2018
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AbstractAbstract AbstractSummary PDFSupplementary Material
Although the nationwide inoculation rate of varicella vaccine was approximately 95% in Korean children recently, the number of notified varicella cases is unexpectedly continuously increasing till now. To suggest some hypotheses regarding this discrepancy, an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis as a descriptive epidemiology study was conducted for children residing in Jeju-do, Korea.
The raw data were obtained from the nationwide database for insurance claim of healthcare fee provided by the National Health Insurance Service, Korea. The selection criteria were children aged 2-13 years who visited any healthcare center due to varicella from 2005 to 2016 while residing in Jeju-do. After calculating the birth cohort-specific crude incidence rates by age and year, the intrinsic estimator method was used to perform the APC analysis.
As the annual crude incidence rates decreased with increasing age between 2005 and 2016, the age and period effects also decreased. The intrinsic estimator coefficients suggesting the cohort effect shifted from positive to negative in 2011, the starting year of free varicella vaccine program in Jeju-do.
The results suggested that inoculated varicella vaccines have preventive effects. However, further studies to evaluate waning immunity would be needed.
Korean summary
2011년 이후 생후 12-15개월 유아에게 수두백신 무상접종을 시행해 오고 있는 제주도에 있어서, 수두발생 신고건수가 증가하는 괴리 현상에 있어, 국민건강보험공단의 수진자료를 확보하여 연령-기간-코호트 (age-period-cohort, APC) 분석을 시행하였다. 그 결과 연령이 증가하고 연도가 최근으로 올수록 수두 발생에 대한 연령과 기간효과는 점점 감소하는 반면, 수두백신 무상접종이 시작된 2011년을 전후해서 코호트 효과는 양에서 음으로 전환하였다. 따라서 현재 접종하고 있는 수두 백신은 수두발생을 예방하는 효과가 있으며, 돌발수두 발생은 이차백신 실패로 볼 수 있다.


Citations to this article as recorded by  
  • The comparison of seroconversion rates among different varicella vaccines administered Turkish children; MAV/06 and vOka
    Zuhal Umit, Zumrut Sahbudak Bal, Aysin Zeytinoglu, Tansu Gulbahar Aydogan, Ozlem Bag, Gizem Guner Ozenen, Ferda Ozkinay, Zafer Kurugol
    Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics.2021; 17(11): 4190.     CrossRef
  • Recent increase in pertussis incidence in Korea: an age-period-cohort analysis
    Chanhee Kim, Seonju Yi, Sung-il Cho
    Epidemiology and Health.2021; 43: e2021053.     CrossRef
  • Incidence of Scarlet Fever in Children in Jeju Province, Korea, 2002-2016: An Age-period-cohort Analysis
    Jinhee Kim, Ji-Eun Kim, Jong-Myon Bae
    Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health.2019; 52(3): 188.     CrossRef

Epidemiol Health : Epidemiology and Health