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Eu Jin Lee` 1 Article
Effect of long-term blood pressure trajectory on the future development of chronic kidney disease: an analysis of data from the Korean National Insurance Health Checkup Study
Wonmook Hwang, Eu Jin Lee`, Jae-Hyeong Park, Soon-Ki Ahn
Epidemiol Health. 2024;e2024090.   Published online November 19, 2024
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2024090    [Accepted]
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a prevalent health issue that causes the irreversible loss of functioning nephrons, end-stage renal disease, cardiovascular disease, and premature mortality. Hypertension is the leading cause of CKD. However, the effect of long-term blood pressure (BP) changes on the development of CKD is still unknown. Therefore, the current study investigated the association between BP trajectory and the future development of CKD.
METHODS
In this study, 246,874 individuals aged ≥40 years who underwent health examinations during the screening period (2002-2009) were evaluated. The systolic BP (SBP) trajectory was determined using latent-class mixture modeling. New-onset CKD was identified during the follow-up period (2010-2019). The association between SBP trajectories and new-onset CKD was assessed.
RESULTS
In total, 111,900 adults (53,420 women, 51.9  6.4 years old) presented with 2 SBP trajectory classes: class 1 (n = 66,935) and class 2 (n = 44,965). During the follow-up period, patients with SBP trajectory class 2 had an approximately 2.1-fold increased risk of developing CKD (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.114; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.989-2.246, p<0.001). In the multivariate analysis adjusted for other significant variables, SBP trajectory class 2 was significantly associated with CKD in men (HR, 1.093; 95% CI, 1.005-1.189; p=0.037), but not in women (HR, 1.059; 95% CI, 0.947-1.184; p=0.321).
CONCLUSIONS
An elevated longitudinal BP was associated with a higher incidence of CKD in male participants aged ≥40 years. Nevertheless, further studies are needed to validate the clinical significance of an elevated SBP trajectory on CKD development.
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