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Original Article
Forecasting and prediction of scorpion sting cases in Biskra province, Algeria, using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model
Schehrazad Selmane, Mohamed L’Hadj
Epidemiol Health. 2016;38:e2016044.   Published online October 14, 2016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2016044
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  • 4 Crossref
AbstractAbstract PDF
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
The aims of this study were to highlight some epidemiological aspects of scorpion envenomations, to analyse and interpret the available data for Biskra province, Algeria, and to develop a forecasting model for scorpion sting cases in Biskra province, which records the highest number of scorpion stings in Algeria.
METHODS
In addition to analysing the epidemiological profile of scorpion stings that occurred throughout the year 2013, we used the Box-Jenkins approach to fit a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to the monthly recorded scorpion sting cases in Biskra from 2000 to 2012.
RESULTS
The epidemiological analysis revealed that scorpion stings were reported continuously throughout the year, with peaks in the summer months. The most affected age group was 15 to 49 years old, with a male predominance. The most prone human body areas were the upper and lower limbs. The majority of cases (95.9%) were classified as mild envenomations. The time series analysis showed that a (5,1,0)×(0,1,1)12 SARIMA model offered the best fit to the scorpion sting surveillance data. This model was used to predict scorpion sting cases for the year 2013, and the fitted data showed considerable agreement with the actual data.
CONCLUSIONS
SARIMA models are useful for monitoring scorpion sting cases, and provide an estimate of the variability to be expected in future scorpion sting cases. This knowledge is helpful in predicting whether an unusual situation is developing or not, and could therefore assist decision-makers in strengthening the province’s prevention and control measures and in initiating rapid response measures.
Summary

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by  
  • Epidemiological aspects of scorpion stings in Algeria: A monocentric retrospective study
    Mohamed Amine Kerdoun
    Toxicologie Analytique et Clinique.2022; 34(1): 4.     CrossRef
  • Terrestrial venomous animals, the envenomings they cause, and treatment perspectives in the Middle East and North Africa
    Timothy P. Jenkins, Shirin Ahmadi, Matyas A. Bittenbinder, Trenton K. Stewart, Dilber E. Akgun, Melissa Hale, Nafiseh N. Nasrabadi, Darian S. Wolff, Freek J. Vonk, Jeroen Kool, Andreas H. Laustsen, Jean-Philippe Chippaux
    PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases.2021; 15(12): e0009880.     CrossRef
  • Time Series Analysis of Tuberculosis in Medea Province in Algeria
    Mohamed L'HADJ, Schehrazad SELMANE
    Journal of Engineering Technology and Applied Sciences.2019; 4(2): 85.     CrossRef
  • Predictive determinants of scorpion stings in a tropical zone of south Iran: use of mixed seasonal autoregressive moving average model
    Vahid Ebrahimi, Esmael Hamdami, Mohammad Djaefar Moemenbellah-Fard, Shahrokh Ezzatzadegan Jahromi
    Journal of Venomous Animals and Toxins including Tropical Diseases.2017;[Epub]     CrossRef
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